A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
